Docs
How HoodMarkets works, and how to use it — in plain terms.
What is HoodMarkets?
HoodMarkets is a permissionless prediction market: anyone can create a yes/no question, anyone can trade shares in the outcome, and prices move in real time to reflect the market's implied probability. It's built on Robinhood Chain — the public Arbitrum-based Layer 2 Robinhood launched in July 2026 — making HoodMarkets the first prediction market deployed there.
Backers
HoodMarkets is backed by Umbrella Labs, Alphatoken Capital, and Web3 Ventures.
Getting started
You need a crypto wallet (like MetaMask) and a little USDC to trade. Here's the full loop, start to finish.
Connect your wallet
Click "Connect Wallet" in the top right of the app. Approve the connection in your wallet — no signup, no email, no account.
Browse markets
Head to the Markets tab. Filter by category, or sort by trending, newest, closing soonest, or most recently resolved. Each card shows the live implied chance of Yes.
Will the Fed cut rates this quarter?
28%
chance
Team Alpha wins the championship?
64%
chance
Open a market and trade
Tap a card to see its full price history and detail. Use the trade panel to buy Yes or No shares — either by entering how much USDC to spend, or the exact number of shares you want.
25.00
Hold, sell, or redeem
Sell shares back into the market any time before it closes. If you hold winning shares once a market settles, head to your Portfolio and redeem — each winning share pays out $1.
Buying and selling
You can buy by specifying either the USDC amount you want to spend, or the exact number of outcome shares you want to end up with — the app solves for the required cost either way. Selling always works in shares. Every winning share redeems for exactly $1 of collateral once a market is settled, so the number of shares you hold is exactly your potential payout if that outcome wins.
Creating a market
Anyone can create a market from the Create Market button in the header.
Write your question
Keep it a clear yes/no question, e.g. "Will X happen by Y date?"
Pick a category and close date
This is what people use to find your market, and when trading stops.
Seed initial liquidity
You provide the USDC that backs the market's starting price curve. You don't get shares for this — it's what lets the very first trader buy or sell. In return, you earn a share of every trading fee collected on your market, withdrawable any time.
Settlement
Markets are settled by an AI agent (an LLM) that determines the outcome once trading closes — a single on-chain call sets the final outcome. There's no bond, no dispute window, and no oracle module. This is a deliberate simplicity tradeoff: it keeps the protocol small and fast to reason about, in exchange for trusting a single settlement agent rather than a decentralized dispute process.
How prices work: the bonding curve
Instead of matching buyers with sellers order-book style, every market is its own automated market maker using a Pythagorean bonding curve: reserve = c × √(yesSupply² + noSupply²). Buying Yes shares increases yesSupply and pulls the price of Yes up (and No down) continuously — there's always someone to trade with, even for the very first trade in a brand-new market. The displayed "chance" percentage is exactly yesSupply² / (yesSupply² + noSupply²), independent of trading fees.
Fees
A flat protocol trading fee (1% by default) applies to every buy and sell, set globally by the platform admin. It is not configurable per market. 5% of every fee collected goes to that market's creator rather than the protocol treasury — withdrawable any time from the market page — as the only return a creator earns on the liquidity they seeded.
Categories
Every market can be tagged with a category (Politics, Elections, World, Economy, Business, Crypto, Sports, Tech, AI, Science, Space, Climate, Health, Entertainment, Movies, Music, Gaming, Awards, Culture, Law, or Other) at creation time, so the markets list can be searched, filtered, and sorted — by category, by trending volume, by newest, by soonest-to-close, or by most-recently-resolved.
Roadmap
HoodMarkets is early. Here's where things stand today, and what's coming next.
Trading on Robinhood Chain
Create markets, trade Yes/No shares, and redeem winnings — live today.
No token
There is no HoodMarkets token, and none is being sold or airdropped right now. Trading uses USDC/USDG. Be wary of anyone claiming otherwise.
Native mobile app
A dedicated iOS/Android app for browsing and trading markets on the go.
Multichain support
Bringing HoodMarkets to additional chains beyond Robinhood Chain, so liquidity isn't locked to one network.
Developer docs
Coming soon
Contract addresses, ABI reference, and integration guides for building on top of HoodMarkets are on the way.